Amos Harel Sinai Attack: Astonishing Egyptian Failure Has Israel Worried
Sinahe massacre of worshippers at a mosque in Sinai on Friday –
the deadliest jihadi terror attack ever in Egypt – is the Egyptian security forces’ second failure in just over a month. In the previous incident, in the Giza district west of Cairo, more than 50 Egyptian policemen were killed in a raid gone wrong at a hideout of Muslim Brotherhood militants. After the first incident, Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah al-Sissi fired his army chief of staff, now simply a presidential adviser.
From
the Israeli point of view, the two Egyptian failures are astonishing.
Especially in Sinai, it’s hard to understand how after constantly
fighting the Islamic State’s
Wilayat Sinai affiliate in recent years, the Egyptians have let fewer
than 1,000 operatives carry out such murderous attacks. The
ineffectiveness of the Egyptian security forces cries out to the
heavens, especially when we remember the foreign media’s reports that Israel has been extensively helping Egypt in intelligence and the use of drones against Islamic State strongholds.
The
United States shares the frustration and surprise; in a number of cases
Washington noted to Sissi and his people that the Egyptian security
forces’ preparedness was clumsy and predictable. In the fight against
terror and guerrilla groups, quicker action is needed, combining precise
intelligence and commando forces. The Egyptians are still very far from
employing this method that resembles the way Israel combats terror
groups.
From
the Egyptian point of view, things aren’t so bad, despite the terrible
massacre in Sinai. If more than 300 had been killed in Cairo, for
example, this would have presented a much greater challenge to the
regime.
Senior
Egyptian officials have said more than once that the fight against
terror, especially in Sinai, will take a great deal of time, and that
they have patience. To them, they’ve chalked up plenty of achievements,
above all getting some of the Sinai Bedouin tribes to fight the Islamic
State. The backdrop for the recent attack might have been the refusal of
the tribe in whose territory the attack took place to cooperate with
ISIS.
Cairo,
in any case, perceives the war against fundamentalist groups as a
battle on three fronts: on the Libyan border, in core Egypt and in
Sinai. The fighting on the Libyan front is more severe than in Sinai,
and the Egyptians have seen some success there. The main concern, shared
by Egypt and Israel, involves the possibility that Wilayat Sinai will
now strengthen in light of events in the entire region.
The
defeat of the Islamic State and the fall of the caliphate the group
established in Syria and northern Iraq paves the way to a new era that
Israeli intelligence calls ISIS 2.0. This is no longer control of a
clearly defined territory, but rather a “virtual caliphate” in which the
group recruits young radicals for attacks via the Internet, in Western
countries as well, while taking advantage of Sinai’s great desert.
In
a speech to the nation, Sissi promised that operations against the
Islamic State would become more brutal. It may be assumed that the
Egyptians will opt for a major show of force in Sinai while trying to
reach understandings with more Bedouin tribes.
The
Islamic State has already taken in to its ranks veterans of its battles
in Syria and Iraq, a phenomenon that could increase in the coming
months. Friday’s attack showed a high degree of planning and
implementation; the terrorists stormed the mosque where hundreds of
worshippers were trapped and then set ambushes for rescue personnel.
Such sophistication also worries the Israel Defense Forces, in case ISIS
fighters (who are also operating against Al-Qaida’s awakening local
branch) try an ambitious attack in the direction of Israel.
Shaky Hamas-PA reconciliation
The
Sinai attack will delay the opening of the Rafah crossing, which Gazans
have been waiting for impatiently following the reconciliation
agreement between Hamas and the Palestinian Authority. But the status of
the reconciliation talks is worse than the parties are willing to
admit. For the moment, it seems high hopes will be dashed: completing
the process by December 1, launching the joint government’s operations
and putting the Rafah crossing into continual operation.
The
last round of talks in Cairo ended in utter failure. In this context, a
kind of unsigned manifesto has been published detailing the ostensible
understandings reached by the parties. This might have been a false
report by Egyptian intelligence, which is mediating the process and now
wants to calm things down.
Among
other things, it claimed that Hamas had agreed to accept the Palestine
Liberation Organization as the only legal representative of the
Palestinian people. It’s hard to believe that Hamas would agree to this
without promises of representation in PLO bodies – one of the main
stumbling blocks in the negotiations.
And
so there’s a double danger. One is the Palestinian people’s loss of
hope in light of the talks’ failure, which could help reheat the border
between Israel and Gaza. The second is the possibility that Islamic
Jihad will request a chance to settle accounts after Israel blew up a
tunnel on the Gaza border last month, killing 12 Islamic Jihad militants
and one Hamas man.
Amos Harel
Commenti
Posta un commento