Ben Caspit : Perché Bibi snobba Obama ed evita la conferenza AIPAC
Sintesi personale
Per spiegare la decisione di Benjamin Netanyahu di rinunciare a un incontro con il presidente degli Stati Uniti Barak Obama, non è sufficiente motivare tale scelta con il desiderio del
Primo Ministro di evitare di essere trascinato nel putiferio della campagna elettorale . Le vere ragioni sono altre :
Una ragione diplomatica collegata alla discussione in corso di un
protocollo d'intesa tra Israele e gli Stati Uniti per determinare le
dimensioni del pacchetto di aiuti militari dagli Stati Uniti a partire dal 2017. Attualmente Israele riceve circa $ 3
miliardi di dollari anno per la sicurezza. Dopo l'accordo nucleare con l'Iran, Israele sperava di aggiornare il pacchetto a più di $ 4 miliardi. Tuttavia, Netanyahu ha rifiutato
di negoziare precedetentemente con l'amministrazione degli Stati per poter condurre la sua lotta disperata contro la ratifica dell'accordo
nucleare al Congresso.
Ora, il primo ministro si trova in una situazione disperata.
Gli americani sono d'accordo a far decollare l'assistenza, ma non come Israele vuole..Gli americani sono disposti ad arrivare a circa $ 4 miliardi
Netanyahu è ancora determinato a rinviare l'accordo e ad aspettare il prossimo presidente Il primo ministro è preoccupato per un "agguato diplomatica" da parte di Obama durante i suoi ultimi mesi in carica. Teme qualcosa sulla falsariga dei parametri di Clinton
Obama possiede un accordo quadro formulata dal segretario di stato John Kerry.o , eventualmente potrebbe appoggiare l' iniziativa francese al Consiglio di sicurezza per quanto riguarda la creazione di uno stato palestinese, Tali atti sarebbero visti da Netanyahu come una vera catastrofe strategica.
Netanyahu calcola che il presidente potrebbe effettuare una
tale mossa se un pacchetto di aiuti militari per il prossimo decennio fosse firmato., in quanto rimuoverebbe l'immagine
anti-israeliana che Netanyahu ha dipinto su Obama negli ultimi anni. Allo stesso tempo permetterebbe al presidente americano di lasciare dietro di sé un'eredità diplomatica.
Netanyahu, che era un leader prudente ,è diventato un giocatore d'azzardo fuori controllo
negli ultimi due anni.
Il successo gli ha dato alla testa ,la vicinanza a Adelson e le sue
risorse finanziarie illimitate gli hanno dato un falso senso di
sicurezza.
Un ministro israeliano ha detto ad Al-Monitor scorsa settimana a
condizione di anonimato che Netanyahu sta mettendo in pericolo i più
importanti interessi strategici di Israele.
Il secondo motivo che lo ha spinto a non recarsi negli Stati Uniti in
questo momento è anche collegata a interessi politici interni : A gennaio
il governo israeliano ha raggiunto un compromesso storico
e assegnato ai riformati e ai conservatori ebrei uno spazio di
preghiera separata di fronte al Muro del Pianto , il luogo più sacro del
giudaismo. .
I partiti ultra-ortodossi, senza il quale Netanyahu non può mantenere
il suo governo, minacciano di smantellare la coalizione se non verrà modificato tale
accordo storico.
Questo è lo stesso accordo che viene visto dal mondo ebraico come un
passo di riconciliazione tra lo Stato ebraico, controllato dagli ortodossi ,con la maggior parte degli ebrei di tutto il
mondo che appartengono ai due Rabbinati.
Netanyahu sa che se avesse partecipato alla conferenza AIPAC alla fine di questa
settimana, avrebbe ricevuto una calda e festosa accoglienza del
pubblico dagli ebrei appartenenti ad entrambi gli schieramenti religiosi ,ma sarebbe stato un abbraccio pericoloso. Netanyahu è un Ebreo laico e non ha alcun interesse a tutto questo clamore.
La sua visione del mondo è decisamente non ortodossa, ma lui è un
politico esperto e la sua coalizione cadrebbe a pezzi senza gli 'ultra-ortodosso. Lui è caduto in questa trappola e, al momento, non ha idea di come superare questa situazione di stallo.
L'ultima cosa di cui ha bisogno è uno spettacolo pubblico di
sostegno per la riforma dell'ebraismo che non farà che ulteriormente
infuriare i suoi partner della coalizione
Why Bibi snubbed Obama and is skipping next week's AIPAC conference
To explain Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s decision to forego a meeting with US President Barak Obama, associates of the
prime minister noted to Al-Monitor the US primaries and Netanyahu’s
desire to avoid being dragged into the ruckus surrounding them. While
there is some truth to this excuse, given on condition of anonymity,
it is not exactly high on the list of the real reasons. What is taking
place in the US primaries has caused great consternation to Netanyahu as
well as his American political patron, casino mogul Sheldon Adelson. In
contrast to the previous presidential contest, during which Adelson
sunk many millions into the candidacy of Newt Gingrich
before skipping over to Mitt Romney’s camp
and investing $100 million in him, this time, Netanyahu and Adelson are
waiting to see which way the wind would turn. The problem is that the
wind has swirled in a crazy direction.
No one in Netanyahu or Adelson’s circles had dreamed of Donald Trump's
rise. Now they are beginning to get used to him, as reflected in the
tone of the articles in Israel Hayom, the pro-Netanyahu newspaper
financed by Adelson.
Netanyahu had two more important reasons that
induced him to skip the meeting with Obama on March 18 and waive an
appearance before American Israel Public Affairs Committee (AIPAC) the
following night. One was a diplomatic reason, the other was
political-religious.
The diplomatic reason is connected to the discussion over a memorandum
of understanding between Israel and the United States that
will determine the dimensions of the military aid package from the
United States to Israel in the decade starting in 2017. Currently,
Israel receives about $3 billion a year in security aid. Following the
nuclear agreement with Iran, Israel hoped to upgrade the package to more
than $4 billion. However, Netanyahu refused
to open contacts while the US administration was willing to meet it
halfway (in the middle of last year), in order to wage his hopeless
struggle against ratification of the nuclear agreement in Congress.
Now, the prime minister finds himself in a hopeless situation.
The Americans are agreeing to ramp up assistance, but not
to the level that Israel wants. The gaps remain, and chances that they
will be bridged are low.
Israel demands $4 billion a year, not including special assistance for
the development of its various interceptor programs, including the Magic Wand (David’s Sling) and the Arrow missile.
They are intended to complete Israel’s aerial protection against
long-range rockets and missiles. The support needed for these
projects comes to hundreds of millions of dollars a year, meaning that
what Israel really wants is assistance close to $5 billion, all told.
The Americans are willing to enlarge the aid to about $4 billion total.
This is a significant gap.
Netanyahu is still determined to postpone the agreement to
the next president’s term of office, despite Vice President Joe Biden
begging him last week when he was in Israel to sign it during Obama’s
term of office. Netanyahu has his reasons. The prime minister is
concerned about a “diplomatic ambush” from Obama during his last few
months in office. He fears something along the lines of the Clinton Parameters that President Bill Clinton set out in the last few days of his term of office.
Obama possesses a framework agreement formulated by
Secretary of State John Kerry. The president can deliver a speech and
detail the conditions of the framework agreement, a kind of
“Obama Parameters.” Or he can lend his support to the French initiative at
the Security Council regarding the establishment of a Palestinian state
by not vetoing it. Obama could even take an American framework
agreement to the Security Council for ratification. Such acts would be
viewed by Netanyahu as a real strategic catastrophe.
Netanyahu reckons that the president would find it easier
to carry out such a move if a military aid package for the next decade
is signed. A well-publicized
signing ceremony would remove the anti-Israeli image that Netanyahu
has painted on Obama in recent years. Simultaneously, it would allow the
American president to leave behind a diplomatic legacy. Those close to
Netanyahu assess that if the sides do not reach an agreement on military
aid, it will be harder for Obama to embark on a diplomatic campaign. He
will need something to show his even-handedness, Netanyahu’s people
think, because he won’t want to harm Hillary Clinton’s chances at the
presidency and he won’t want to go down in history as an anti-Israeli
president.
Netanyahu, who was a cautious and calculating leader for
most of his career, has become an out-of-control gambler in the last two
years. Success has gone to his head and his closeness to Adelson and
his unlimited financial resources have given him a false sense of
security. After he lost his wager on US presidential candidate Mitt
Romney, Netanyahu went on to fail in his Iranian policy and then gambled
again to try to avert congressional authorization of the agreement. He
failed yet again — but each time he keeps raising the bar one more
notch.
An Israeli minister told Al-Monitor last week on condition
of anonymity that Netanyahu is endangering Israel’s most important
strategic interests. “It could happen that Trump will be president and
he’ll reassess the whole business of American support all over the
world. We could even find ourselves with zero support due to Netanyahu’s
shenanigans,” he said.
So, to avoid finding himself being dragged into signing the
memorandum, Netanyahu decided to miss the presidential meeting. At the
moment, his coalition is more important to him than military aid. He
founded a narrow right-wing government, and a political tremor could
dismantle it.
The second reason that impelled him not to travel to the
United States at this time is also connected to these political
interests: In January, the Israeli government reached a historic compromise and
allotted Reform and Conservative Jews a special, separate prayer space
opposite the Western Wall, Judaism’s holiest site. This compromise
passed a government vote, but also let an ancient genie out of its
bottle. The ultra-Orthodox parties, without whom Netanyahu cannot
maintain his government, are now threatening to dismantle the coalition
unless he agrees to their demand to amend this historic agreement. This
is the same agreement that is viewed by world Jewry as a reconciliatory
step taken by the Jewish state controlled by an Orthodox
establishment with most of the world’s Jews, who are Reform or
Conservative.
Netanyahu knows that if he attends the AIPAC conference at
the end of this week, he would receive a warm and festive public welcome
from the Reform and Conservative Jews. But it would be a dangerous bear
hug. Netanyahu is a secular Jew, even a borderline atheist, and has no
interest in all this hullabaloo. His worldview is decidedly
non-Orthodox, but he is an experienced politician and his coalition
would fall apart without the ultra-Orthodox. He fell into this trap
against his will and at the moment, has no idea how to get through this
impasse. The last thing he needs now is a public show of support by
Reform Jewry, which will only further enrage his natural ultra-Orthodox coalition partners.
Netanyahu understands that sometimes, the best thing to do is simply stay home, disengage and pray for a miracle.
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