Amos Harel srael's Groundhog Day in Gaza: Stuck in Endless, Bloody Loop With Hamas
When it comes to the confrontation with Hamas in
the Gaza Strip, Israel seems to find itself in a situation like that of
Bill Murray in the movie "Groundhog Day." Murray plays a TV weatherman
who, after covering an event on February 2, gets caught in a time loop,
endlessly repeating the same day, trapped in a vicious cycle that no one
but he notices. (And sure enough, Israeli politicians and defense
officials also now use the term "groundhog day" to describe a recurring
situation.)
That's more or less what's happening to Israel in Gaza. Since March 30, when the weekly Palestinian demonstrations along the border fence
began, tensions in the Strip have been notched up significantly. Once
every few weeks they erupt into a "round": a day or two when Hamas fires
hundreds of rockets at Israeli communities on the Gaza border (usually in reaction to the killing of members of its military wing). Israel responds with dozens of airstrikes, and Egypt and the UN envoy to the Middle East, Nickolay Mladenov, intervene and achieve a partial cease-fire – until the next round.
That's what happened this week too, but this time it stemmed from a misunderstanding
on the Israeli side. On Tuesday morning, senior Hamas officials,
apparently some from abroad who came to Gaza for consultations on
international efforts to achieve an interim agreement with Israel,
visited a Hamas naval commando outpost in the northern Strip. They were
there to observe a demonstration of the commandos' capabilities.
An
Israeli army lookout noticed two snipers on a tower and saw them
opening fire. Although the tower is about 2 kilometers (1.2 miles) from
the fence, there were concerns (which proved mistaken) that the shooting
could endanger Israeli troops along the fence. The Israeli commanders
in the sector decided to strike, and the two Hamas snipers were killed by tank fire.
The Israeli
intelligence gap that contributed to the incident is worrisome. Military
Intelligence should have known about such an exercise, or at least kept
track of the movements of the Hamas officials from abroad. The army
admits that had it known that this was a Hamas exercise, it would not
have opened fire.
Hamas would certainly
have found another excuse for firing rockets sooner or later, but this
was still an unnecessary mistake. The excuse that the outpost is "behind
a high hillock" isn't convincing. More can be expected of a country
that invests billions each year in intelligence.
Hamas threatened a
response and on Wednesday delivered – first with sniper fire at the
fence in the afternoon, which didn't cause any casualties, and later
with rocket barrages throughout the evening and the night.
By
Thursday morning, 180 rockets had been shot; a woman on the Israeli
side was moderately wounded. More than 20 civilians were hospitalized
for shrapnel wounds and shock. This was the most massive shelling of
Israel in recent months.
Hamas is still
talking about "calculated firing." Al Jazeera on Thursday even deemed
the escalation part of the negotiations. The Israeli response has also
been measured. Although military spokespeople are pointing to the many
targets attacked by Israel – almost 150 – the small number of
Palestinian casualties and the fact that there was no attempt to strike
at senior Hamas military commanders attest to the restraint.
A senior official
from the General Staff told reporters Thursday about steps the army was
taking: deployment of additional Iron Dome anti-rocket batteries, a
small mobilization of reservists to reinforce the batteries,
preparations for the dispatch of additional ground forces to the
Southern Command, strict instructions to residents of communities near
Gaza to use caution – and if necessary, even preparations to evacuate people from these communities.
The atmosphere near
Gaza is tense. The rockets are far more dangerous than the fires that
have been started by the incendiary kites and balloons in recent months.
Perhaps worst of all
are the dozens of alarm sirens going off at the height of the summer
vacation, when the children are at home. Some weekends recently have
seen a quiet exodus from border communities. When reports increased of
Hamas' intentions to heat things up near the fence, many residents
preferred to keep their distance.
Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu held a series of consultations on Thursday
morning, ending with a cabinet meeting. Despite the threats against
Hamas, Israel isn't looking for a war in the Strip. The political
leaders are concerned about the consequences of sending infantry and
tanks into the heart of a densely populated area, including its own
losses. They're asking themselves if at the end of such a war, the
situation would be better than it is now.
On the other hand,
Netanyahu and Defense Minister Avigdor Lieberman are facing increasing
criticism from the right, and even from the left, for showing weakness
vis-à-vis Hamas. Under pressure from public opinion and the media, they
might approve a broader action by the army.
At noon Thursday, the
Palestinian factions announced the end of the current round of
hostilities. Three hours later, a rocket was fired from Gaza toward
Be'er Sheva some 40 kilometers away. This was the first time the city
was targeted since the 2014 Gaza war. As in previous cases, it seems
Israel is ignoring the factions' declarations in the first hours so as
not to admit it's negotiating, even if through mediators, with terrorist
organizations.
On Thursday
afternoon, the Palestinian factions declared the end of the current
round. As in the previous episodes, Israel has ignored these
announcements over a period of hours, amid concerns about admitting that
it's indirectly negotiating with terror groups. If the halt to
Palestinian rocket fire is met by an end to Israeli attacks, we'll know
by evening that the round really has ended – until the next time, of
course.
If the exchange
continues, the reasonable possible direction is a demonstration of what
the forces are capable of – this time from our side – with several days
of offense making clear to Hamas the damage Israel is capable of if
Hamas insists on continuing the hostilities.
There's a measure of
logic in such a step. As opposed to the necessity for restraint
regarding the kites, here there's genuine danger. At the moment, Hamas
believes that it's dictating events and apparently doesn't feel
sufficiently threatened. There is still a range of choices in the
spectrum between restraint and war.
The danger, as
always, lies in the law of unexpected consequences, which works overtime
during combat. Losses on the Israeli side, or an unintentional mass
killing of Palestinian civilians during an airstrike, could lead to a
worse deterioration, even to the point of war.
In the coming hours
and days, a race will be on between the military and diplomatic
timetables. If Egypt and the United Nations can't achieve a binding
"small agreement" – a full cease-fire in exchange for concessions on the
movement of goods into the Strip along with enlarging Gaza's fishing
zone and perhaps the beginning of economic concessions – Israel will
take further military action to force an agreement on Hamas. It's not
yet war in Gaza, but we could be slowly heading in that direction.
Amos Harel
Haaretz Correspondent
Commenti
Posta un commento