Chemi Shalev Analysis Gaza Carnage Is a Propaganda Victory for Hamas – and a Hasbara Nightmare for Israel
For
the first time in a long while, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict took a
central place over the weekend in international media news reports.
Israeli spokespersons did supply evidence of Hamas militants trying to
breach the border fence in Gaza
under the guise of a supposedly popular protest, but Western opinion
makers preferred the viral video of a Palestinian teen getting shot in
the back and an overarching narrative of despondent Gazans protesting
their oppression and blockade. Fifteen Palestinians were killed, hundreds were injured and the fence remained intact, but in the battlefield of propaganda, Hamas scored a victory.
Future
developments are also in the hands of the Islamic organization. The
more Hamas persists with the “March of the Million,” as it has been
dubbed, and the more it succeeds in separating the protests from acts of
violence and terror, the more it will succeed in defying and
embarrassing Israel as well as Mahmoud Abbas and the Palestinian
Authority. If commanders of the Israel Defense Forces don’t find a way
to repel efforts to breach the fence without causing so many casualties,
Israel’s predicament will grow exponentially. Friday’s day of bloodshed
may be quickly forgotten if it remains a solitary event, but if the
bloodshed recurs over and over during the six-week campaign that is slated to culminate on the Palestinian Nakba Day
in mid-May, the international community will be forced to refocus its
attentions on the conflict. Criticism of, and pressure on, Prime
Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, which has virtually evaporated in recent months, could return with a vengeance.
The
working assumption on the Israeli side is that terror and violence are
an inherent part of Hamas’ self-identity; the Islamist group is
supposedly incapable of suspending its “armed struggle,” even
temporarily. If this is the case, Israel’s distress will soon pass and
Hamas will squander the advantages it gained in the mass skirmishes near
the fence. If the Israeli conception turns out to be wrong, however,
and Hamas proves itself capable of tactical discipline and restraint, it
could manufacture what has always been Israel’s hasbara nightmare:
Mass, nonviolent Palestinian protests that compel the IDF to kill and
maim unarmed civilians. Analogies to Mahatma Gandhi, apartheid South
Africa and even the struggle for civil rights in America, superficial
and preposterous as they may be, will frame the next stage of the
Palestinian struggle.
The
immediate support of the Trump administration, expressed in a
Passover-eve tweet by special envoy Jason Greenblatt, who lambasted
Hamas incitement and its “hostile march,” is ostensibly a positive
development from Israel’s point of view. Contrary to Trump, Barack Obama
would have been quick to criticize what is being widely described as
Israel’s excessive use of force, and might have conferred with Western
European countries on a proper diplomatic response. Israel welcomes and
Netanyahu often extols its unparalleled coordination with the Trump
administration, but it could also turn out to be a double-edged sword,
which will only make things worse.
Trump,
after all, is one of the most despised U.S. presidents in modern
history, in Western public opinion in general and among American
liberals in particular. Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem
as Israel’s capital and his decision to move the U.S. Embassy there are
widely perceived as contributing to Palestinians frustration and sense
of isolation. As long as Israel maintains a low profile and doesn’t star
in negative news headlines, its intimate relations with Trump cause
only marginal damage; in times of crisis, however, the damage can be
substantial. The criticism that would have been leveled at Israel in the
wake of “Bloody Friday” in any case is fueled by widespread resentment
of Trump and his policies - and by a wish to punish his favorites. The
more the U.S. administration defends Israel’s unpopular actions, the
more its critics, including American liberals, will treat Trump and
Netanyahu as one unsavory package.
The
unqualified U.S. support strengthens the resolve of Netanyahu and his
ministers to stick with their do-nothing polices toward both Gaza and
the peace process. Most Israelis view Hamas purely as a terror
organization, and their gut reaction is that Israel can’t and shouldn’t
be perceived as caving in to terror and violence. At a time when early
elections seem just beyond the horizon, the last thing Netanyahu’s
right-wing coalition wants to do is deviate from its established
policies, which would be tantamount to admitting the error of its ways.
Calls from the left to review the IDF’s conduct in Gaza and reassess
Netanyahu’s policies toward the Palestinians overall could bring the
Israeli-Palestinian conflict back to the center of public discourse
after an extended absence, but will also provide the prime minister with
an excuse - as if he needs one - to divert attention away from the
crisis in Gaza to backstabbing internal enemies from within.
The
Book of Hosea, however, taught us “He who sows the wind shall reap the
whirlwind.” Israel’s ongoing diplomatic paralysis on the Palestinian
issue and its misguided belief that the status quo can be maintained
indefinitely provided the opening for Hamas’ propaganda coup: The
Islamist group can suddenly see light at the end of the tunnels that the
IDF is systematically destroying. Hamas may shed crocodile tears over
the dead and injured, but even if their numbers are doubled and tripled
over the next few days, it is a small price to pay for resuscitating its
prominence and for pushing both Netanyahu and Abbas into a corner. The
fact that Jerusalem maneuvered itself into a position in which a proven
terrorist group that still dreams of destroying “the Zionist entity” can
outmaneuver Israel in the court of public opinion and cast it as
malevolent occupier with an itchy trigger finger is a monumental
failure, one that can only get worse as long as Netanyahu and his
government prefer to entrench themselves in their obtuse
self-righteousness.
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