Zvi Bar'el :Prime Minister Hariri's Resignation Threatens Iranian Grip on Lebanon
Exactly a year after being tapped by Lebanon’s president to form a government, Saad Hariri has resigned as prime minister. He didn’t even bother returning to Lebanon to make the announcement; he made it from Saudi Arabia.
His
explanation was that the situation in Lebanon reminded him of the
period leading up to the murder of his father, former Prime Minister Rafik Hariri,
and also that “Iran is trying to destroy the Arab world, and
Hezbollah’s weapons are aimed at Syrians and Lebanese.” But was fear of
being assassinated really behind his decision?
The
Saudi media reported a few details that could indicate that an
assassination was being planned; for example, the observation towers
that monitor Hariri’s convoys for security reasons had been shuttered,
ostensibly to prevent anyone from summoning aid during an assassination
attempt. But if this were the real reason, why didn’t he announce it
Monday when he arrived in Saudi Arabia on the first of his two separate
trips there in recent days?
Thus
it seems the real reason stems from what he heard during those two
trips to Saudi Arabia, and especially the scathing criticism by Thamer
al-Sabhan, the Saudi minister of state for Gulf affairs, of the Lebanese
government’s failure to curb Hezbollah and Iranian influence in
Lebanon.
Saudi
King Salman and his son, Crown Prince Mohammed, are waging an
uncompromising war on Iran’s regional influence, so they find it hard to
tolerate the continued presence of Hezbollah
ministers in Hariri’s cabinet. The Saudis have been gritting their
teeth over this since Hariri formed his government a year ago.
‘Flexibility’ toward Hezbollah
Hariri’s national consensus government has preserved Lebanon’s
political stability, but at the cost of concessions to Hezbollah, and
therefore de facto to Iran. Hariri has not demanded Hezbollah’s
disarmament (despite calling its weapons illegal), has let the Lebanese
army cooperate with Hezbollah in expelling the Islamic State from
Lebanon’s border with Syria, and supported the appointment of
Hezbollah’s candidate, Michel Aoun, as president. (Aoun subsequently
made Hariri prime minister.)
Hariri’s
“flexibility” toward Hezbollah has also outraged some of his prominent
Lebanese supporters, who warned him against falling into Hezbollah’s
honey trap. But Hariri thought he could manipulate the organization for
his own purposes.
Hezbollah
did help Hariri manage his government. Contrary to its efforts in
previous cabinets, it didn’t thwart government initiatives and generally
tried not to embarrass the government in which it sat. But as months
passed, it became clear not just to the Lebanese, but also to the
Saudis, that their protégé Hariri, who holds both Saudi and French
passports, was having trouble deciding whether he was “Saudi or
Iranian.”
Saudi
anger exploded after Ali Akbar Velayati, an adviser to Iran’s supreme
leader, Ali Khamenei, said during a visit to Lebanon on Friday that
“Lebanon’s victory over terror is a victory by the resistance” – meaning
Hezbollah – and that Iran “will continue to protect Lebanon and won’t
let things go back to the way they were before.”
Velayati’s
meetings with Aoun, Hariri and parliament speaker Nabih Berri, on the
same day that Russian President Vladimir Putin was in Tehran, were the
last straw. Not only was Iran publicly flaunting its involvement in
Lebanese affairs and trying to tilt Russia against Saudi Arabia, but
Hariri was hosting the Iranian envoy as if he were an ally.
Political paralysis now
Hariri’s
urgent second trip to Saudi Arabia has two possible explanations.
Either he received a message from Velayati to give to King Salman, or he
was summoned for a reprimand because he “hadn’t understood” the
unsubtle hints he received from Saudi officials Monday. The first is
unlikely. Hariri’s resignation indicates that the Saudis gave him an
ultimatum. He must not only stop compromising with Hezbollah, but also
resign in order to put Hezbollah and Iran in a bind in Lebanon.
A
bind is exactly what Lebanon can expect now, because the government
will be paralyzed until a new prime minister is chosen. Granted, Hariri
will stay in office until a replacement is found, but he’ll no longer be
bound by his agreements with Hezbollah, as seen in his criticism of the
organization in his resignation announcement Saturday.
Theoretically,
Aoun can tap another minister or member of parliament to form a
government. But experience shows that the process of forming a
government in Lebanon is like an elephant’s pregnancy. At best, it will
take many long weeks. At worst, it could spark violent clashes between
Hariri’s supporters and Hezbollah supporters, rioting by armed militias,
and attacks on Syrian refugees, who already face a nonviolent assault
in the form of demands that they leave Lebanon.
Hezbollah
and Iran understand the threat posed by Hariri’s resignation quite
well, and Iran’s response – that “the resignation was a plot by Saudi
Arabia and the United States” – reveals its fear of losing control of
Lebanon, which until has now been run more or less to Tehran’s
satisfaction. Still, it’s premature to envision disaster scenarios under
which Hezbollah would exploit the resignation to attack Israel in order
to demonstrate its continued control over the political arena.
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