Chemi Shalev : Obama-complex fuels Trump and Netanyahu’s fight against Iran nuclear deal
Donald Trump is obsessed with Barack Obama.
The U.S. president never misses an opportunity to insult and taunt his
predecessor. Trump does his best to diminish Obama’s achievements as he
endeavors to erase them from the history books as well. His task is
naturally easier in foreign affairs and national security, where his
independent authority is wider. He withdrew from the Trans Pacific
Partnership, backed away from the Paris Accord on global warming and scaled back Obama’s rapprochement with Cuba.
But
just as repealing Obamacare was and remains the principle objective in
expunging Obama’s legacy on the domestic front, so is Obama’s nuclear accord with Iran seen as the red flag that won’t let Trump rest until he tears it to shreds.
The
hostility between the 45th president and the 44th, unprecedented in
recent presidential history, is the product of Trump’s feelings of
inferiority, his narcissistic personality and his cynical political
exploitation of American racism, which he may or not share. On one hand,
Trump positioned himself as the front man for the semi-deranged
“birther" movement and then used his newfound popularity as fuel for his
successful presidential run. On the other hand, Trump can never forgive
Obama for mocking and humiliating him at the 2011 White House
Correspondents’ Dinner, just after he’d published his birth certificate.
Trump was mortified by Obama’s active participation in Hillary
Clinton’s election campaign. He was enraged by Obama’s post-election
assertion that if he had been the candidate, he would have beaten Trump
roundly. And he can’t stand the fact that as a direct consequence of his
problematic presidency, most of the world misses Obama today more than
it appreciated him when he was in office.
Benjamin Netanyahu shares Trump’s Obama-complex but seeks to exploit it as well. Obama handed Netanyahu a stinging defeat,
perhaps the worst of his career, when he moved the Iran nuclear deal
through Congress, notwithstanding Netanyahu’s objections and despite his
controversial speech before a joint session
in March 2015. Obama didn’t hide his disappointment from Netanyahu,
though there is a marked difference in his assessment of Trump and of
the Israeli prime minister; the latter, as Obama has often conceded, is
intelligent. What Netanyahu and Trump have in common, among other
things, is their inability to accept criticism, their tendency to turn
critics into enemies and their fervent wish to wipe the smile off what
they see as Obama’s condescending face.
This
is the backdrop to the meeting in New York on Monday between Trump and
Netanyahu, the two senior members of the Obama Victims Club, who are
both seeking payback by trying to erase his signature foreign policy
achievement. In principle, the two are unlikely to disagree. They will
concur that the July 2015 Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action with Iran
was ill-conceived from the outset and is now a disaster waiting to
happen. They will disparage all the generals, diplomats and intelligence
experts from both countries who believe that keeping the nuclear deal,
despite its faults, is preferable to all the alternatives. They will
agree that even if the U.S. can’t nullify the agreement outright, there
are numerous detours that can lead to the same result.
Trump’s
preferred option is to refrain next month from certifying that Iran is
in compliance with the agreement, thus giving the U.S. Senate 60 days to
reimpose sanctions that were suspended in the wake of the nuclear deal.
But Netanyahu knows, as does Trump, that the Senate is far from
reliable these days, despite its Republican majority. Just as it failed
to repeal and replace Obamacare, the senators could decide not to assume
responsibility for a clash that could deteriorate to war. Against the
backdrop of the tense relations between Trump and the GOP leadership –
as well as doubts about Trump’s competence – some Republican lawmakers
may not be eager to create a new crisis for Trump to handle when he has
yet to prove that can handle the old ones, such as the nuclear standoff
with North Korea.
Netanyahu
has an interest in convincing Trump to go for Iran first. He knows that
the U.S. president is stuck between a rock and hard place in his
confrontation with Kim Jong-Un, and he must also realize that a direct
clash between Washington and Pyongyang will necessarily put the Iran
nuclear deal on the back burner. Perhaps he’ll subtly remind Trump that
the North Korean nuclear program is registered under the names of
several previous presidents, and its resolution won’t be viewed as a
direct hit on Obama’s legacy. If you want to be a real man, Netanyahu
could intimate, take care of the nuclear deal with Tehran and of the
growing Iranian presence in Syria. A strong message from the Middle East would certainly reach Pyongyang as well as Barack Hussein.
In
normal times, Netanyahu should have shied away from blatantly and
publicly pushing the U.S. president into a clash that could put American
soldiers in harm’s way. But his own obsession with the Iran deal, his
wish to settle an old score with Obama and possibly his hope to deflect
attention away from his criminal troubles back home – the two leaders
could certainly exchange notes on that topic – could push Netanyahu, not
for the first time, to miscalculate. His 2015 speech to Congress,
initiated in collusion with the GOP’s congressional leadership and
behind the White House’s back, created a gulf between Netanyahu and
large parts of the Democratic Party as well as the American Jewish
community. Pushing Trump to a diplomatic clash with the other partners
to the nuclear deal with Iran, at best, or to a dangerous military
confrontation with Iran, at worst, could cast Netanyahu and Israel as
being directly responsible for a diplomatic crisis or, far worse, for
the loss of American lives. As long as Trump remains in power this may
not be a concern, but when the next Democratic president is elected,
Netanyahu and his allies in Israel and the U.S. could find themselves
pining for the good old days of Barack Obama.
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