Barak Ravid :Exclusive //Israel’s Foreign Ministry expects Trump to reduce U.S. involvement in peace process - U.S. Election 2016
m shouldn’t celebrate Trump's victory too long
Israel’s Foreign Ministry believes U.S. President-elect Donald Trump
will reduce America’s involvement in the Middle East in general and in
the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in particular, according to a document
written by ministry researchers and disseminated to Israeli diplomats
throughout the world.
The
document, the contents of which were obtain by Haaretz, stresses that
Trump’s statements during his campaign do not indicate a coherent policy
on the issue.
“As
part of his minimal interest in foreign affairs, Trump doesn’t see the
Middle East as a good investment and it’s reasonable to assume he will
seek to reduce American involvement in the region, alongside his
commitment to maintaining the struggle against Islamic State and the
momentum created in the battle for the cities of Mosul in Iraq and Raqqa
in Syria, which will continue to get his administration’s support,” the
document states.
“The
diplomatic process between Israel and the Palestinians will not be a
top priority for the Trump administration and it’s reasonable to assume
this topic will also be influenced by the staff surrounding him and
developments in the field. Trump’s declarations do not necessarily point
to a coherent policy on this issue. On the one hand he has expressed
support for the settlements and for moving the U.S. Embassy to
Jerusalem, but in other statements he said that he wants to remain
neutral and that the two sides should reach a deal themselves.”
Written
by the ministry’s Center for Political Research, “The Trump
Administration — Preliminary Comments” attempts to determine the future
president’s foreign policy, with special attention to China, Russia and
Europe, and domestic policies.
The
main message of the paper, which represents the position of the
ministry’s professional echelons, is that the Trump administration is
expected to conduct an isolationist policy. The researchers say that at
the start of his term, Trump will try to differentiate himself from the
foreign policy of President Barack Obama, but he could be expected
subsequently to adopt Obama’s belief that the United States must stop
trying to be the world’s policeman.
Trump’s
presidency is expected to redefine the global role of the United
States, the document states. “Trump will be a challenge for the
international community because it’s difficult to know what his
positions are and because he has limited interest in foreign affairs ...
it’s hard to characterize his position given his contradictory
statements ... but his administration is likely to lean toward
isolationism and reducing international involvement.”
The
authors stressed that as a businessman, Trump analyzes issues through
the prism of profit and loss. His foreign policy is expected to focus on
narrow and immediate American interests rather than on a broad and
comprehensive worldview.
“Trump
has expressed contradictory positions on key issues and it isn’t clear
if this reflects a practical policy,” the document says. “We believe
Trump’s limited familiarity with the international arena will make the
team he brings with him to the White House even more important, since it
will have broad influence in setting the administration’s foreign
policy.”
According
to the document, Trump sees Russia as a potential partner for dialogue,
particularly with regard to the war in Syria. The Foreign Ministry
researchers recall in this context that Trump has expressed implied
support for leaving Syrian President Bashar Assad in power and limiting
U.S. military aid to the rebels. According to the document, Trump views
China as a threat to the United States and wants to convey American
power to the Chinese. With regard to Iran, the researchers wrote that
during the campaign Trump took a contrary stance, opposing last year’s
nuclear deal, and made conflicting statements about whether he would
uphold the agreement if elected, but toward the end of the campaign he
stopped calling for it to be voided.
The
ministry’s initial assessment also addressed Trump’s relationship with
U.S. allies throughout the world. “His business outlook may lead to a
change in America’s international relations and influence his actions in
the multilateral arena. Trump won’t flinch from reconsidering the
stationing of American forces abroad, from calling for a reevaluation of
America’s role in the NATO alliance, and from rolling back some of the
international trade agreements the United States has signed.”
The
paper also addresses how Trump will deal with domestic issues upon
entering office on January 20. The ministry researchers noted that the
divisive election could drag America into a serious domestic crisis and
lead to fundamental changes in both the Democratic and Republican
parties.
“Trump’s
victory exposed deep currents in American society and the bitterness
and disgust with the Washington establishment and the values represented
by President Obama,” the document says.
“The
Democrats’ expectation of a Clinton victory was based on the changing
face of America and the support of the coalition of minorities that had
supported Obama. This expectation was dashed by the low voter turnout
among minorities and Trump’s ability to motivate an opposing coalition
made up primarily of white men ... the rift that was exposed in full
force during the elections may get worse. It isn’t clear whether Trump
can or will want to do what is needed to meet the challenge of healing
society, especially given his offensive statements during the election
campaign.”
The
ministry researchers added that both major political parties are
expected to do some soul-searching following the elections, although the
Republican victory may delay the process in that party.
“The
Republican Party is characterized by gaps between the positions of the
party establishment and the positions of the president-elect,” the
document says. “It isn’t clear if unity is possible. It’s too early to
determine how Trump will choose to act toward the Republican
establishment after many of its senior officials alienated themselves
from him ... but his lack of political experience may force him to
cooperate with them.”
On
the other side of the political map, the Foreign Ministry researchers
believe the election results will strengthen the Democratic Party’s left
wing, led by senators Bernie Sanders and Elizabeth Warren.
haaretz.com|Di Barak Ravid
Commenti
Posta un commento