Richard Silverstein : la politica regionale e geopolitica israeliana del dividere per comandare
Il ministro della Difesa israeliano ha parlato con schiettezza insolita ed ha illustrato la strategia geopolitica di Israele per quanto riguarda : l'Arabia ,l' Iran e la Siria.
Durante l'annuale conferenza sulla sicurezza di Monaco di Baviera , Moshe Ya'alon è stato così audace da far saltare il coperchio sulle trattative segrete di Israele con gli Stati del Golfo (soprattutto con l'Arabia Saudita) e ha strombazzato incursioni israeliane nel salafita mondo arabo sunnita, Haaretz ha riferito:
"Il ministro della Difesa ha rivelato i canali di comunicazione che gli israeliani hanno con i paesi arabi sunniti confinanti. 'Non solo la Giordania e l'Egitto' . Io parlo degli stati del Golfo e del Nord Africa . ... Per loro l'Iran e la Fratellanza Musulmana sono il nemico. ... L'Iran è il cattivo per noi e per i regimi sunniti.Ci incontriamo in ambienti chiusi ' "
Tale strategia
è parte del tentativo di Israele di dividere e conquistare la regione
al fine di mantenere la propria influenza e l' occupazione permanente della Palestina .Questa sua schiettezza così poco diplomatica ha provocato una debole protesta dei sauditi Haaretz ha riferito :
"Il principe Faisal ... ha chiesto il permesso di parlare. Strette di mano con gli israeliani non hanno aiutato i palestinesi . Ya'alon
è stato corretto per quanto riguarda la comune animosità verso l'Iran e la Fratellanza
Musulmana ... ma ... i Paesi
arabi sunniti sono furiosi con Israele per l'occupazione e per come tratta i palestinesi. 'Perché gli arabi dovrebbero provare sentimenti di amicizia verso di voi, quando agite in tal modo verso i Palestinesi ?'
La risposta israeliana convenzionale in situazioni
simili è questa : la Palestina non ha nulla a che fare con gli sviluppi
della regione. Ya'alon ,infatti, ha sostenuto :
"C'è un conflitto con i palestinesi , ma qual è il legame tra questo e la rivoluzione iraniana? ISIS [l'organizzazione Stato Islamico] ha una connessione con il conflitto? c'è un collegameno tra la guerra civile in Siria o la rivolta in Tunisia, con la situazione in Yemen o in Iraq? Non vi è alcun collegamento. " Sottovaluta ,così, la percezione del mondo arabo del conflitto palestinese La sottomissione continua della Palestina è un ostacolo pesante che mina la stabilità
regionale
Per anni, i sauditi hanno mantenuto un rapporto semi-segreto con Israele. Hanno coordinato strategie nella loro lotta comune contro l'Iran. I sauditi hanno fama di aver investito $ 1 miliardo di dollari per sostenere la campagna di omicidi di Israele contro gli scienziati nucleari iraniani e l'operazione di sabotaggio Stuxnet contro il programma nucleare iraniano. Funzionari dell'intelligence si sono incontrati in segreto in Israele e altrove. Oltre lo scisma religioso tra sunniti e sciiti che alimenta la rivalità tra Riyadh e Teheran, vi è un fattore ancora più potente a guidare l'inimicizia: il petrolio . L'Arabia Saudita è uno dei più grandi esportatori di petrolio al mondo
La Casa regnante saudita si vede anche come potenza regionale e leader del mondo musulmano. Ora che emerge da decenni di isolamento internazionale, l'Iran ha promesso di aumentare la produzione di petrolio a 1 milione di barili al giorno in un mercato petrolifero già depresso.
Inoltre l'Iran ha elementi che attirano di più dell'Arabia Saudita : i giovani; un'economia imprenditoriale; know-how tecnico; una popolazione ben istruita, l'apertura verso il mondo esterno. A livello regionale l'Iran è in ascesa e l'Arabia Saudita in declino. Tutti questi fattori contribuiscono a fomentare l'odio saudita verso gli iraniani.
Quando i sauditi hanno cercato di fare pressione sugli Stati Uniti per evitare l' accordo nucleare, hanno fatto sapere che essi e Israele erano pronti ad andare da soli contro l'Iran . Il repubblicao Makor Rishon, ha riferito (in ebraico, inglese versione può essere trovata qui ) che la Conferenza statunitense dei Presidenti delle Maggiori Organizzazioni Ebraiche ha visitato di recente il dittatore egiziano Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi al Cairo. Durante l'incontro,il leader egiziano come riferito ha detto loro:
"[Il primo ministro israeliano Benjamin Netanyahu] è un leader con enormi punti di forza che lo aiutano non solo a guidare suo paese, ma a far avanzare la regione stessa e il mondo intero."
Questi sono gli alleati di Israele nella regione: i dittatori, le famiglie reali , gli oligarchi, i signori della guerra e Nusra, affiliata di al-Qaeda in Siria. Israele gravita verso i governanti dittatoriali, lontano dalle democrazie della regione e dagli attivisti della Primavera arabaStephen Greenberg ha offerto el-Sissi il bacio di legittimità a Washington quando ha detto:
"Io
... credo che sarebbe molto importante per l'amministrazione americana accogliere il presidente Sisi negli Stati Uniti. "
Il ministro della Difesa Ya'alon ha lanciato un'altra bomba
a Monaco affermando che il miglior risultato in Siria sarebbe la divisione
in piccoli cantoni governati da singoli gruppi etnici. Reuters :
"Purtroppo stiamo per affrontare l'instabilità cronica per un tempo molto, molto lungo . Meglio non ripetere gli errori del passato unificando la Siria,meglio la cantonizzazione "
Prima della guerra civile avevo ipotizzato che
l'obiettivo di Israele era che la Siria si disintegrasse in piccoli
enclave etniche, ciascuna governata da mini-signori della guerra. Questo per non disturbare gli interessi geostrategici di Israele ed ottenere il Golan Si tratta di un piano che Israele ha elaborato da decenni. Precedenti esempi storici : servizi segreti israeliani hanno facilitato la fondazione di Hezbollah come cuscinetto contro l'aumento di forza dell'OLP in Libano. Israele ha anche aiutato la fondazione di Hamas per agire come concorrente contro l'OLP. Tutti questi sono stati tentativi di indebolire un nemico dividendolo internamente.
. Il caos in Siria è stato amico di Israele. Daniel Pipes ha sostenuto questo punto di vista in perfetta risonanza con militari, analisti politici e strategici israeliani .
E 'difficile vedere all'interno del pantano quale sia la soluzione giusta. , ma chi favorisce il rovesciamento a titolo definitivo del presidente siriano Bashar Assad deve fare i conti con il fatto che questo è quanto vuole Israele e di certo non promette nulla di buono per la Siria.
— Israel’s defense minister spoke with uncharacteristic bluntness recently as he outlined Israel’s geopolitical strategy regarding two critical fronts in the nation’s relations with its neighbors: the Saudi-Iran proxy war and Syria.
Speaking at the annual Munich security conference, Moshe Ya’alon was even so bold as to blow the cover on Israel’s secret dealings with the Gulf states, chief among them Saudi Arabia. He trumpeted Israel’s inroads into the Salafist Sunni Arab world, Haaretz reported:
“The
defense minister noted channels of communication that Israelis have with
neighboring Sunni Arab countries. ‘Not only Jordan and Egypt,’ he
noted. ‘I speak about the Gulf states and North African states too. …
For them, Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood are the enemy. … Iran is the
bad guy for us and for the Sunni regimes. They are not shaking hands
[with Israelis] in public, but we meet in closed rooms.’”
Though the defense minister did not
expound upon this point, such a strategy is part of Israel’s attempt to
divide and conquer the region in order to maintain its own sway. If the
Sunni and Shiite worlds are at each other’s throats, it becomes much
easier for Israel to pursue its own interests, which primarily revolve
around maintaining a permanent occupation of historic Palestine.Ya’alon, a bluff and blustery former Israeli Defense Forces chief of staff, is not known for nuance or diplomatic tact. His presumption in telling a major international security conference that Israel had essentially co-opted the Gulf states was a bit too much for the senior Saudi representative, former security chief Prince Turki al-Faisal. But al-Faisal’s response took the form more of a slap on the wrist than a genuine rebuff. Haaretz reported:
“Prince
Faisal … asked for permission to speak. Handshakes with Israelis have
not helped the Palestinians much, he said. Ya’alon was correct with
regard to his comments regarding the animosity between the Sunni
countries on one hand and Iran and the Muslim Brotherhood on the other …
but … by the same measure the Sunni Arab countries are furious with
Israel over the occupation and its treatment of the Palestinians. ‘Why
should the Arabs feel friendship to you when you do that [to the
Palestinians]?’ he asked.”
Israeli defense minister rejects link between Palestine, larger regional conflicts
The former general then offered the conventional Israeli response in similar situations: Palestine has nothing to do with developments in the rest of the region.Ya’alon maintained there was no connection between the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and current problems elsewhere in the Middle East. He argued:
“There
is a conflict with the Palestinians – but what is the linkage between
this and the Iranian revolution? ISIS [the Islamic State organization]
has a connection to the conflict? The civil war in Syria or the uprising
in Tunisia? The situation in Yemen or Iraq? There is no connection.”
Ya’alon’s response was unconvincing
at best. Think how Jews in the Diaspora reacted when they believed
Israel’s existence was threatened just before the 1967 War. Israel’s
coffers were filled with today’s equivalent of billions of dollars in
contributions. Young people dropped their lives to travel there to help
the war effort. Thousands of Jews eventually decided to make aliyah, or emigrate, in solidarity.If this was true for Diaspora Jews, why would the Arab world not feel precisely the same way about Palestine? What holds true for Israel’s relationship with the Diaspora holds equally true for the Arab world. Palestine’s continuing subjugation may not be the 800-pound gorilla in the room, but it is a hefty obstacle undermining regional stability.
No less a figure than Vice President Joe Biden and two of America’s then-most senior generals agreed with such an assessment, warning in 2010 that Israel’s continuing rejectionism endangered the lives of U.S. troops in the region.
But the wide smiles which graced both the faces of Ya’alon and al-Faisal as they shook hands after their colloquy spoke volumes about the real import of the interaction. The Saudi remonstrance was just for show; the Palestinians are an expendable commodity for them. What worries Israel more than occupation is Iran. And if Israel can help them against Iran, the Saudis will jettison their Arab brothers in Palestine.
Uniting against Iran
For years, the Saudis have maintained a semi-covert relationship with Israel. They have coordinated strategy in their joint fight against Iran. The Saudis are reputed to have invested $1 billion to support Israel’s assassination campaign against Iranian nuclear scientists and the Stuxnet sabotage operation against the Iranian nuclear program. Top intelligence officials have met secretly in Israel and elsewhere.di)Besides the religious schism between Sunni and Shiite Islam which fuels the rivalry between Riyadh and Tehran, there is an even more potent economic factor driving the enmity: oil. Saudi Arabia is one of the largest exporters of oil in the world, and oil happens to be the only thing the mono-economy has that the world wants.
The House of Saud also views itself as a regional power and leader of the Muslim world. Now emerging from decades of international isolation, Iran has promised to ramp up oil production to 1 million barrels a day in an already depressed oil market.
Further, Iran has everything going for it which Saudi Arabia does not: youth; an entrepreneurial economy; technical know-how; a well-educated population; and an openness to the outside world. In regional terms, Iran is on the way up and Saudi Arabia on the decline. All of these factors contribute to stoking Saudi hatred of the Iranians.
When the Saudis sought to pressure the United States not to broker the P5+1 nuclear deal, they let it be known that they and Israel were prepared to go it alone in the fight; even if it might mean attacking their Shiite enemy.
Egyptian dictator cozies up to Netanyahu
The Republican mega-donor Sheldon Adelson’s Israeli paper, Makor Rishon, reported (in Hebrew; English version can be found here) that the U.S.-based Conference of Presidents of Major Jewish Organizations recently visited with Egyptian dictator Gen. Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi in Cairo. During the meeting, the Egyptian leader reportedly told them:
“[Israeli
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu] is a leader with enormous strengths
which aid him not only in leading his own country, but to advance the
region itself and the whole world.”
These are Israel’s allies in the
region: the dictators, the inbred royal families, the oligarchs, the
warlords, and the Nusra Front, al-Qaida’s affiliate in Syria. What does
it say about Israel itself that it gravitates toward strongman rulers
and away from the the region’s democracies and Arab Spring activists?The Conference of Presidents’ chairman, Stephen Greenberg, offered el-Sissi the quid pro quo kiss of legitimacy he was seeking back in Washington when he said:
“I …
think it would be very important for the American administration to
welcome President Sisi at some point to the United States. That would be
a major boost to them.”
Israel advocates cantonization of Syria
Defense minister Ya’alon dropped another bombshell in Munich when he declared the Israel views the Syrian ceasefire brokered by Russia and the U.S. with as much skepticism as it views the nuclear agreement with Iran. The defense minister said that the best outcome in Syria, as far as Israel was concerned, was for the country to be divided into smaller cantons ruled by individual ethnic groups. Reuters quoted him as saying:
“Unfortunately
we are going to face chronic instability for a very, very long period
of time. And part of any grand strategy is to avoid the past, saying we
are going to unify Syria. We know how to make an omelette from an egg. I
don’t know how to make an egg from an omelette.”
According to Reuters, he continued:
“We should realise that we are going to see enclaves – ‘Alawistan’,
‘Syrian Kurdistan’, ‘Syrian Druzistan’. They might cooperate or fight
each other.”A few years into the Syrian civil war, I speculated that Israel’s goal was for Syria to disintegrate into small ethnic enclaves, each ruled by mini-warlords. This would defang Syria as a unified nation, disable any attempt to project Syrian power in the region, and disrupt Israeli geostrategic interests. Most important, it would short-circuit Syria’s ongoing determination to wrest the Golan from Israel, territory seized from it in 1967.
This is a plan which Israel has followed for decades. Prior historical examples include the creation of the Southern Lebanese Army to enforce Israel’s territorial encroachment on Lebanon from 1982 until 2000, when the IDF finally abandoned its incursion. Before that, Israeli intelligence agents facilitated the foundation of Hezbollah as a buffer against rising PLO strength in Lebanon. Israel also aided in the foundation of Hamas, designed to act as a competitor against the PLO. All of these were attempts to weaken an enemy by dividing it internally.
As cynical as it might be to say this, Israel’s goal was for rivers of blood to flow in Syria. And that’s exactly what’s happened. The more Syrians killed each other, the less they would kill Israelis. Chaos in Syria was Israel’s friend. Leading Islamophobe analyst Daniel Pipes advocated such a view, and it clearly resonated with Israeli military strategic and policy analysts as well.
It is difficult to see within the morass that is the current Syrian conflict what is the right solution. But anyone who favors the outright overthrow of Syrian President Bashar Assad, no matter how brutal a tyrant he has proven, must reckon with the fact that this is an outcome Israel favors as well. And if Israel favors it, it does not bode well for Syria.
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