Siria, raid israeliano a Latakia?
di Michele Giorgio
Gerusalemme, 11 luglio 2013, Nena News - Moshe Yaalon ha il tono di chi sa molto ma non ha alcuna intenzione di comunicarlo ad altri. «In Medio Oriente c'è un'esplosione qui, un attacco lì, il più delle volte accusano noi - ha detto due giorni fa il ministro della Difesa israeliano - Non stiamo intervenendo nella sanguinosa guerra civile in Siria ma ci sono delle 'linee rosse' e vanno mantenute». Yaalon quindi non conferma e non smentisce le indiscrezioni insistenti su nuovi blitz israeliani. Da più parti si dice che lo Stato ebraico ha attaccato ancora in territorio siriano, per la quarta volta dall'inizio dell'anno. Stavolta però non con l'aviazione bensì con missili cruise lanciati dalla sua Marina militare.
Cosa sia accaduto il 5 luglio nel porto siriano di Latakia resta un mistero. Una serie di potenti esplosioni hanno polverizzato depositi di armi e ucciso, pare, una ventina di soldati della caserma di Safira alla periferia della città-roccaforte della famiglia del presidente Bashar Assad, a pochi km da Tartus, scalo privilegiato nel Mediterraneo delle navi da guerra russe. Da Damasco la notizia è stata spiegata come un attacco da parte di uomini al Qaeda, alleata dei ribelli anti-governativi. Per Al Manar, la stazione tv del movimento sciita libanese Hezbollah, alleato di Damasco, le esplosioni sarebbero state causate da colpi di mortaio (dei ribelli) andati fuori bersaglio. Invece un altro giornale libanese, al Akhbar, ha avanzato per primo l'ipotesi di un attacco di forze straniere, con tre missili sparati dal mare. Versione sostenuta anche da Qassem Saadeddine, un portavoce dell'Esercito libero siriano, la milizia ribelle, secondo il quale i missili hanno i depositi con i missili russi "Yakhont" (P-800 Oniks), appena forniti da Mosca all'Esercito siriano.
Si tratta di missili anti-nave dotati di sistemi radar dell'ultima generazione con un raggio a bassa quota di 120 km, una velocità superiore a Mach 2 e con una testata di 250 kg di esplosivo ad alto potenziale. Un missile trasportato da unità mobili in grado di minacciare la Marina dello Stato ebraico e, potenzialmente, di tenere sotto tiro i giacimenti israeliani di gas offshore. Motivi sufficienti per lanciare un nuovo attacco, stavolta dal mare, da parte del governo Netanyahu interessato a mantenere con le buone e, soprattutto, con le cattive la superiorità militare di Israele.
A metà maggio un anonimo alto ufficiale israeliano aveva detto al New York Times, che Tel Aviv era pronta a colpire ancora in Siria «se necessario», in riferimento ai tre raid aerei (il primo a fine gennaio, gli altri due il 3 e il 5 maggio) compiuti a Sud di Damasco e intorno alla capitale siriana per bloccare - secondo la versione data da Israele attraverso canali diplomatici e giornali stranieri - convogli di armi con i razzi russi SA-17 in apparenza destinati a Hezbollah. Raid che, stando a indiscrezioni, Israele avrebbe compiuto addirittura non entrando nello spazio aereo siriano ma sparando missili dal Libano e dalla Giordania. Così come l'altra sera la Marina israeliana avrebbe sparato i cruise dalle acque internazionali.
Potrebbe però essere stato anche un avvertimento lanciato ai russi che si accingerebbero a rispettare il contratto per la fornitura alla Siria delle batterie S-300, missili terra-aria che rappresentano uno dei migliori sistemi di difesa da attacchi aerei, cruise (appunto) e missili balistici. Una difesa formidabile che darebbe alla Siria la possibilità di contenere l'evidente superiorità aerea di Israele. Gli S-300 li vuole anche l'Iran ma la Russia in questo caso prende tempo. Per questo il governo Netanyahu sta facendo - con l'aiuto degli alleati Usa - forti pressioni su Mosca affinché congeli sine die la consegna degli S-300 attesi alle Forze Armate siriane.
È di qualche giorno fa la missione in Russia della ministra israeliana Tzipi Livni, per convincere Vladimir Putin a fermare tutto. In ogni caso il ministro della Difesa israeliano Yaalon è stato perentorio nell'affermare, qualche mese fa, che Israele «saprà cosa fare» nel caso gli S-300 venissero effettivamente consegnati a Damasco. Nena News
2 Israel Destroyed Syrian Weapons Depot Containing Advanced Russian Arms
UPDATE: An Israeli journalist reports to me that his
media outlet received a directive from the military censor that any
story about the Latakia attack must pass through its office before
airing or publication. This unusual demand is a sure indicator that the
IDF is attempting to control reporting on the incident. The only
reason for doing so is to ensure Israeli reporters do not report its
involvement in the bombing.
This incident has taken on many of the markings of the 2007 Israeli bombing of the Syrian nuclear reactor. At the time, Ehud Olmert forbade any mention of Israeli responsibility for the assault in order to allow Assad to save face and not retaliate. That tactic worked. In this situation, Israel is terribly worried how Russia will react, since it destroyed some of that country’s most sophisticated weaponry destined for the Syrian military. That’s why the IDF has clamped down on reporting about it. It does not want to create unnecessary confrontation with Russia if it doesn’t have to.
The question is how Putin will react. He’s not one to take such a hostile act lying down. The question is what can he do to harm Israel’s interests even if he wanted to? Undoubtedly, there are ways, but is he willing to pay the price in potentially escalating the Syrian conflict or seriously damaging relations with Israel?
Though the Free Syrian Army took immediate credit for the attack, it was not the responsible party. A confidential Israeli source informs me that Israeli forces attacked the site. The target were components of Russia’s SA-300 anti-aircraft missile system which had been shipped by Russia to Tartous and stored in Latakia. Israel and exerted tremendous pressure on Vladimir Putin to cancel its contract to supply the missile batteries to Syria, since once they were operational they would render Israeli aircraft more vulnerable to attack. Israel, of course, will countenance no front-line state having even defensive weapons which give it superiority over Israeli weapons systems. In response to Israeli entreaties, Russia’s leader refused to budge and recommitted to providing the weapons to Assad. Apparently, he’d begun to follow through on his promise with these first shipments.
This is Israeli third attack inside Syria since January. It
considerably escalates the conflict there since it is the first known
attack by Israeli forces which destroyed Russian armaments. Though
Putin was surely warned by Israel that this would happen if he went
forward with the arms deal, actually attacking Russian munitions is an
act to which Putin will not take kindly, to say the least.
Assad bragged publicly a month ago that the SA-300 deliveries had arrived. Turns out he was right. Perhaps he shouldn’t have shot his mouth off.
Israel’s Channel 10 aired a claim by Syria rebels that Israel attacked and Israel journalists tell their viewers that they know things they’re not allowed to tell. A clear indication of Israeli involvement. Haaretz reports that a Syrian army source called the explosion the result of a technical failure, which hardly seems credible.
My source further notes that the FSA coordinated with the IDF and launched a rocket attack on nearby government military installations in order to distract loyalist forces from the real target. But the rebels played no role in the attack on the munitions cache. Their claim of responsibility conveniently takes Israel off the hook (until people read this report) and lessens pressure or condemnation on Israel for its third major attack inside Syria since January.
It’s all the stranger that Haaretz’s Amos Harel, in writing about the incident would write this:
How does Harel think Israel coordinated the FSA diversionary attack near Latakia? With smoke signals? No, Israeli intelligence has created a tacit alliance with the rebels who serve Israel’s interests when Assad acts in ways Israel believes will harm it. Hezbollah’s role in the Qusayr fight may have caused alarm in the Israeli defense ministry, which may’ve seen this as further evidence of escalation inside Syria. If Israel could take Hezbollah down a peg or two after its victory taking the Syria town on Assad’s behalf, it would be eager to do so. In this sense, the Syrian civil war is a proxy battle between Israel and Hezbollah who are itching for their next direct confrontation (the last one being in 2006).
Israel launched a very similar raid several months ago on the Sudanese capital Khartoum, in which it destroyed a major government arms depot. It’s known that Iran ships its weapons to Hamas and Syria via ports on the Arabian Sea, from where they’re shipped via Sudan to points north. Again, Israel has sucked countries throughout the region into the vortex of its own conflict with the Palestinians. If this doesn’t prove that this conflict is a major destabilizing force in the region, nothing will.
The area attacked is in the Alawite heartland of northwestern Syria. As such, Assad would think of it as one of his most secure bastions. Violating it as Israel has done would be meant to show Assad that he has no sanctuary from which to hide and serve as a psychological blow. At least, Israel would hope to convey such a message.
Haaretz’s Hebrew edition reports that Israel may’ve chosen this time to attack because the attention of the international media was focussed on the Egyptian coup, which served as a convenient distraction.
Another factor to keep in mind is that the recent assistance that Hezbollah offered to Assad in sending 4,000 fighters to subdue the strategic town of Qusayr would come with a price. Hezbollah would not be shy is extracting its share of the bargain, which would certainly involve transshipment of advanced Iranian or Russian weaponry via Syria to Lebanon, where the Lebanese militia would use it against Israel in any future military confrontation.
Another possibility is that Russia, which recently confirmed that it would honor its contract with Assad calling for delivery of the SA-300 anti-aircraft system. It’s possible Russia had begun shipping components of these missile batteries to Assad.
This site speculates that Israel used cruise missiles launched from its German-built Dolphin submarines to destroy the complex. If true, it would mean that German built advanced armaments were being used by Israel in a pre-emptive attack violating the territorial sovereignty of another Mideast country. Though Israel could just as easily have used its own air force to do the job.
Correction: Osnet Daily, a website linked above, accompanied its story about the Latakia explosion with an image that reputed to be of this event. Two readers have noted it was actually a photo of a 2009 explosion at a Russian or Ukrainian arms depot. My apologies for the error. If anyone finds an actual photo of the Latakia event, let me know.
This incident has taken on many of the markings of the 2007 Israeli bombing of the Syrian nuclear reactor. At the time, Ehud Olmert forbade any mention of Israeli responsibility for the assault in order to allow Assad to save face and not retaliate. That tactic worked. In this situation, Israel is terribly worried how Russia will react, since it destroyed some of that country’s most sophisticated weaponry destined for the Syrian military. That’s why the IDF has clamped down on reporting about it. It does not want to create unnecessary confrontation with Russia if it doesn’t have to.
The question is how Putin will react. He’s not one to take such a hostile act lying down. The question is what can he do to harm Israel’s interests even if he wanted to? Undoubtedly, there are ways, but is he willing to pay the price in potentially escalating the Syrian conflict or seriously damaging relations with Israel?
* *
A massive explosion last Thursday at a major Syrian weapons depot in
Latakia, not far from the main port of Tartous, completely destroyed the
facility and munitions stored there. Tartous is Syria’s main port. It
is largely controlled by the Russian military, and the route by which
all weapons transported by sea would enter Syria. As such, any advanced
Russian weaponry would enter via Tartous and might be stored in the
Latakia depot.Though the Free Syrian Army took immediate credit for the attack, it was not the responsible party. A confidential Israeli source informs me that Israeli forces attacked the site. The target were components of Russia’s SA-300 anti-aircraft missile system which had been shipped by Russia to Tartous and stored in Latakia. Israel and exerted tremendous pressure on Vladimir Putin to cancel its contract to supply the missile batteries to Syria, since once they were operational they would render Israeli aircraft more vulnerable to attack. Israel, of course, will countenance no front-line state having even defensive weapons which give it superiority over Israeli weapons systems. In response to Israeli entreaties, Russia’s leader refused to budge and recommitted to providing the weapons to Assad. Apparently, he’d begun to follow through on his promise with these first shipments.
Site of Thursday’s attack
Assad bragged publicly a month ago that the SA-300 deliveries had arrived. Turns out he was right. Perhaps he shouldn’t have shot his mouth off.
Israel’s Channel 10 aired a claim by Syria rebels that Israel attacked and Israel journalists tell their viewers that they know things they’re not allowed to tell. A clear indication of Israeli involvement. Haaretz reports that a Syrian army source called the explosion the result of a technical failure, which hardly seems credible.
My source further notes that the FSA coordinated with the IDF and launched a rocket attack on nearby government military installations in order to distract loyalist forces from the real target. But the rebels played no role in the attack on the munitions cache. Their claim of responsibility conveniently takes Israel off the hook (until people read this report) and lessens pressure or condemnation on Israel for its third major attack inside Syria since January.
It’s all the stranger that Haaretz’s Amos Harel, in writing about the incident would write this:
Israel wasn’t mentioned in connection with Thursday’s incident in Latakia. It doesn’t intervene in events in Syria.Apparently, Israelis believe that “intervention” means invading the country with boots on the ground. When it sends its jet planes to bomb Syrian targets inside the country, that’s not considered intervention. This is further evidence of Israeli delusions and self-denial about their level of interference in the affairs of frontline Arab states. Such refusal to acknowledge Israel’s real role allows Israelis to believe falsely they’re innocent bystanders, sometimes even victims (!) in the affairs in the region.
How does Harel think Israel coordinated the FSA diversionary attack near Latakia? With smoke signals? No, Israeli intelligence has created a tacit alliance with the rebels who serve Israel’s interests when Assad acts in ways Israel believes will harm it. Hezbollah’s role in the Qusayr fight may have caused alarm in the Israeli defense ministry, which may’ve seen this as further evidence of escalation inside Syria. If Israel could take Hezbollah down a peg or two after its victory taking the Syria town on Assad’s behalf, it would be eager to do so. In this sense, the Syrian civil war is a proxy battle between Israel and Hezbollah who are itching for their next direct confrontation (the last one being in 2006).
Israel launched a very similar raid several months ago on the Sudanese capital Khartoum, in which it destroyed a major government arms depot. It’s known that Iran ships its weapons to Hamas and Syria via ports on the Arabian Sea, from where they’re shipped via Sudan to points north. Again, Israel has sucked countries throughout the region into the vortex of its own conflict with the Palestinians. If this doesn’t prove that this conflict is a major destabilizing force in the region, nothing will.
The area attacked is in the Alawite heartland of northwestern Syria. As such, Assad would think of it as one of his most secure bastions. Violating it as Israel has done would be meant to show Assad that he has no sanctuary from which to hide and serve as a psychological blow. At least, Israel would hope to convey such a message.
Haaretz’s Hebrew edition reports that Israel may’ve chosen this time to attack because the attention of the international media was focussed on the Egyptian coup, which served as a convenient distraction.
Another factor to keep in mind is that the recent assistance that Hezbollah offered to Assad in sending 4,000 fighters to subdue the strategic town of Qusayr would come with a price. Hezbollah would not be shy is extracting its share of the bargain, which would certainly involve transshipment of advanced Iranian or Russian weaponry via Syria to Lebanon, where the Lebanese militia would use it against Israel in any future military confrontation.
Another possibility is that Russia, which recently confirmed that it would honor its contract with Assad calling for delivery of the SA-300 anti-aircraft system. It’s possible Russia had begun shipping components of these missile batteries to Assad.
This site speculates that Israel used cruise missiles launched from its German-built Dolphin submarines to destroy the complex. If true, it would mean that German built advanced armaments were being used by Israel in a pre-emptive attack violating the territorial sovereignty of another Mideast country. Though Israel could just as easily have used its own air force to do the job.
Correction: Osnet Daily, a website linked above, accompanied its story about the Latakia explosion with an image that reputed to be of this event. Two readers have noted it was actually a photo of a 2009 explosion at a Russian or Ukrainian arms depot. My apologies for the error. If anyone finds an actual photo of the Latakia event, let me know.
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