Ufficiale della Nato: se Israele attaccasse l'Iran non avrebbe un supporto unanime
Il comandante della missione NATO in Libia ,che ha rovesciato il regime Muammar Gheddafi lo scorso anno, si oppone con forza a un attacco militare contro l'Iran in questo momento indipendentemente dal fatto che sia effettuato da Israele o dagli Stati Uniti.
Lt. Gen. Charles Bouchard, ritiratosi dalla Force Royal Canadian Air quattro mesi fa, ha dichiarato a Haaretz in un'intervista esclusiva che Israele non dovrebbe fare un passo così illogico e irresponsabile senza il sostegno internazionale.
La NATO non all'unanimità sosterrebbe un'azione militare contro l'Iran né lo farebbe il Consiglio di sicurezza dell'ONU. Egli è convinto che Israele non metterà in moto un processo che potrebbe far precipitare nel caos tutta la regione. L'opzione militare potrebbe trasformarsi in un boomerang che danneggerebbe Israele e unirebbe tutto il mondo musulmano contro d essa.
La possibilità di un tasso di successo del 100 per cento in una operazione militare è infinitamente piccolo e Israele non avrebbe una seconda possibilità e non sarebbe un fulmine veloce come la Guerra dei Sei Giorni.
Ha aggiunto che tutti i paesi, ovviamente, hanno il diritto di difendersi, ma Israele dovrebbe tener conto del fatto che la jihad globale saprebbe sfruttare un attacco militare israeliano definendolo frutto di un complotto ebraico-cristiano contro l'Islam.
Bouchard ha invitato chiunque vinca le prossime elezioni presidenziali negli Stati Uniti a guardare alla diplomazia del passato : Richard Nixon nel 1972 visitò in Cina e Anwar Sadat del 1977 si recò a Gerusalemme. La soluzione non è un gioco a somma zero, ma un compromesso reciproco.
La Russia è la chiave per ottenere appoggi internazionali contro l'Iran, un'opportunità per il presidente russo Vladimir Putin ad agire come leader. La contingenza attuale in tutto il mondo e in Medio Oriente in particolare necessita di stabilità ed Israele non può effettuare azioni affrettate e premature.
La violenza in Siria è completamente diversa da quella libica : assomiglia alla situazione in Iraq e in Afghanistan Inoltre Gheddafi è stato sostenuto da leader marginali come Hugo Chavez e Robert Mugabe e avversato da altri paesi africani , dalla Lega araba e dal Qatar che ha inviato aerei per farlo cadere. Al contrario la Siria ha sostenitori forti come l'Iran, la Russia e la Cina, così come i gruppi terroristici degli Hezbollah e di Hamas. La questione in sintesi è questa : è possibile sconfiggere il presidente siriano Bashar Assad e in caso affermativo a quale prezzo ? E quanto tempo ci vorrà?
Inoltre l'opposizione libica era pronta a prendere il potere, mentre la rimozione dal potere di Assad può provocare il caos,.
If Assad gets desperate, he is liable to attack Israel, on the assumption that if he is going down, he may as well take Israelis with him, warned Bouchard. Inoltre la NATO ha avuto successo in Libia, perché non ha inviato forze di terra, ma la geografia e l'instabilità politica della Siria escludono che una battaglia in quel paese possa essere combattuta esclusivamente per via aerea. I raid aerei potrebbero causare perdite significative e provocare indignazione contro l'Occidente fra i paesi della regione.Per questo nella guerra libica aveva ordinato ai piloti di evitare di colpire le installazioni del' acqua ,ospedali, strade e moschee anche se sapeva che le truppe di Gheddafi si rifugiavano in queste strutture. A volte l'ordine di sganciare bombe è stato annullato quando era chiaro che si potevano colpire civili innocenti. Si è dichiarato contento che i Fratelli Musulmani non abbiano vinto le elezioni
lì , aggiungendo che avrebbe voluto vedere Gheddafi di fronte a un tribunale per crimini di guerra.
ARTICOLO IN LINGUA INGLESE
NATO official: Soon, Israel won’t have unanimous support for Iran strike
In exclusive interview with Haaretz, Canadian general warns that military strike could serve interests of jihadis.
By Akiva Eldar
The commander of the NATO mission in Libya that toppled Muammar Gadhafi's regime last year vehemently opposes a military strike on Iran at this time, regardless of whether it would be carried out by Israel or the United States.
Lt. Gen. Charles Bouchard, who retired from the Royal Canadian Air Force four months ago, told Haaretz in an exclusive interview Sunday that he doesn't believe Israel would take such an illogical and irresponsible step as to attack Iran without international support.
And NATO won't unanimously support a military campaign against Iran any time soon, he said, nor will the UN Security Council.
As someone familiar with Israel's senior military leadership, because of his work at NATO, Bouchard said he is convinced that Israel will not set in motion a process that could lead to chaos in the entire region, by launching a military attack on Iran's nuclear facilities.
The military option, he said, could be a boomerang that will end up harming Israel and uniting the entire Muslim world against it.
Bouchard, a native of Quebec, is a former deputy commander of the joint U.S.-Canadian military operation NORAD. He said the strategic price of a preventative war against Iran would be several times higher than the tactical benefit that might be gained.
The chance of a 100 percent success rate in a military operation is infinitesimally small, said Bouchard, adding that Israel won't get a second chance and that it won't be a quick lightning strike like the Six-Day War.
He added that while all countries obviously have the right to defend themselves, Israel should take into account that global jihad would exploit an Israeli military assault and use it to incite against the West. He said Islamic fundamentalists can be expected to portray an attack as a Jewish-Christian conspiracy against Islam.
Bouchard called on whoever wins the next U.S. presidential election to look to historic groundbreaking diplomacy for examples of what could be accomplished, like Richard Nixon's 1972 visit to China and Anwar Sadat's 1977 visit to Jerusalem.
The solution is not a zero-sum game, said Bouchard, but a compromise in which each side concedes something.
Russia holds the key to securing international support on Iran, he said, adding that this is a chance for Russian President Vladimir Putin to act like a leader by preventing another round of a Cold War. The situation around the world, and in the Middle East in particular, needs to settle down first, Bouchard said, warning that Israel must not get itself dragged into hasty and premature actions.
The violence in Syria is completely different from that in Libya when Bouchard headed Operation Odyssey Dawn, he said, adding that it more closely resembles the situation in Iraq and Afghanistan, in that it requires long-term international intervention.
In addition, Gadhafi was backed by sidelined leaders like Venezuela's Hugo Chavez and Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe, and opposed by other African countries as well as the Arab League and Qatar, which sent aircraft to help topple him.
By contrast, Syria has strong supporters like Iran, Russia and China, as well as terrorist groups like Hezbollah and Hamas.
The question, said Bouchard, is whether it's possible to defeat Syrian President Bashar Assad and if so, at what cost? And how long will it take?
In addition, the Libyan opposition was prepared to take power, while removing Assad from power at this point is likely to result in chaos, he said. If Assad gets desperate, he is liable to attack Israel, on the assumption that if he is going down, he may as well take Israelis with him, warned Bouchard.
The retired commander said NATO was successful in Libya because it didn't send in ground forces, but the geography and political instability of Syria mean that a battle in that country can't be fought exclusively by air. In addition, he warned, air strikes on Syria could cause significant casualties and provoke outrage against the West among countries in the region.
In an effort to avoid such a response to the NATO bombing of Libya, Bouchard said he ordered the pilots to avoid hitting water installations, hospitals, roads and mosques at all costs, even though he knew that Gadhafi's troops sometimes took refuge in such facilities. Two-thirds of the time, the order to drop bombs was canceled and the planes turned around, when it became clear there was a risk they would harm innocent civilians, he said.
In the battle against Libya, NATO planned for the day after, Bouchard said, adding that the forces were in Libya to protect the civilians and that he was pleased that the Muslim Brotherhood did not win the elections there.
It's too bad that Gadhafi was lynched by rebels, said Bouchard, adding that's not why NATO launched its campaign. Bouchard said he would have liked to see Gadhafi facing a war crimes tribunal.
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