Shalit liberato in previsione della guerra all'Iran (fonti israeliane) in inglese

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Shalit and Iran connection

Op-ed: Netanyahu finalized Shalit swap because Israel must prepare for greater challenge
Alex Fishman
Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu urgently wanted to clear his desk and prepare for something else; something bigger and more important.

The Gilad Shalit affair is one of the greatest burdens faced by the prime minister, and he had to remove it from the agenda in order to create a new image and elicit tolerance and sympathy to the government and its decisions – both in the domestic theater and among Israel’s friends, especially in Western Europe.
Shalit Deal
Anatomy of a deal  / Ron Ben-Yishai
Shalit swap analysis: At the end of the day, Israel capitulated, Hamas showed flexibility
Full Story

So why does the PM need this new image, to the point of renouncing his uncompromising principles on the issue of fighting terror? The answer to this mystery can be found in the enigmatic message he conveyed to the nation Tuesday evening.

Netanyahu spoke of a window of opportunity that is about to be closed and connected it to geostrategic developments. The average listener would translate this to mean the so-called Arab Spring and Arab world upheaval, which create uncertainty. Yet this is not the real reason.

When Netanyahu and Ehud Barak are concerned, it’s always somehow related to Iran. This is apparently the backdrop for the prime minister’s decision to show flexibility and convince the forum of top eight government ministers not to interrupt and finalize the Shalit deal.What exactly is happening on the Iranian front? The answer is unclear. Yet this is clearly the next hot issue, and Israel better get there with an image of a flexible, pragmatic state that is willing to offer concessions. The Europeans will be applauding us, and no less importantly, it will boost the national consensus and the prime minister’s image ahead of the next challenge.

Red lines breached

The moment the PM was convinced to change direction, the way to completing the Shalit deal was paved. Once Netanyahu was convinced that he can renounce his principles, because more important matters are on the agenda, he gave the green light to Israel’s top negotiator, David Midan, to prepare a new list that breached all the red lines.

The freed prisoners will include representatives of the entire Palestinian nation, from every organization and every region – from the 1947 Palestine, from the Golan Heights and from Jerusalem. While these are not the numbers Hamas wanted, it won the public opinion battle. Israel also agreed to release some 15 heavyweight terrorists whom Netanyahu obligated not to free and said no other PM would release.For Netanyahu, this deal is a default option. In his view, failing to implement it would have caused greater damage, in light of Israel’s preparation ahead of its encounter with the great threat.
 Shalit and Iran connection

A number of very peculiar things have happened or been published today that relate directly or indirectly to the Shalit deal.  First among them is an official IDF statement that the Israeli and Egyptian militaries have completed their investigation of the Israeli assault on Egyptian forces that followed the Eilat terror attack.  The Israeli media, including yesterday’s Haaretz (Hebrew), says the IDF killed five Egyptian officers, so why does Ethan Bronner and his entire NY Times Israel bureau continue to say, and repeatedly, only three were killed?  The report is under seal (of course) because presumably there are many things in it that would be embarrassing to the IDF and create greater tension between Israel and Egypt.  But the important passage is this:
Based on the findings of the investigation, Barak decided to express an apology to Egypt for the deaths of Egyptian policemen as the result of IDF fire.
Haaretz reports the apology in its Hebrew edition.  Interestingly, neither the official IDF statement or Haaretz’s report makes clear that Israel invaded Egyptian territory in hot pursuit of the terrorists.  This of course would’ve been dealt with in the secret report, which is why it’s secret.  H/t to reader Ruth.

News reports also indicate Israel will free some 80 Egyptians held in Israeli prisons and that Egypt will release Ilan Grapel, the Israeli-American arrested during the Tahrir Square protests several months ago.  It would seem (and Amos Harel confirms this in the Hebrew report linked above) that the Israeli apology for the killings in Eilat is part of this package deal.
Perhaps the most ominous story coming out of today’s news, is this report by a well-placed, well-regarded Israeli journalist, Alex Fishman, who says the reason that Bibi did the Shalit deal now, is that he has something really big up his sleeve.  Read on:

All Because of Iran
Bibi Netanyahu is dying to clear the table ["clean house"] and redecorate in preparation for something different, something bigger, something more important.
…If you’re looking for the things that worry Netanyahu and Barak they’re always connected to Iran.  This appears to be the background for the prime minister’s decision to back down from his previous position and to pressure the senior ministerial committee not to interfere and to close the Shalit deal.
Whatever’s happening regarding the Iran chapter [of this story] isn’t clear.  But it’s clear that this is the next hot subject and it’s important that Israel comes to it with the image of a moderate, pragmatic state prepared to compromise.  The Europeans will applaud us.  This is no less important: this will strengthen the international consensus and the image of the prime minister in the face of the next challenge.
The article details all the compromises and back pedaling Bibi agreed to in sealing this deal, all the retreats he made from previous red lines he’d drawn.  Fishman says there has to be a reason for Bibi capitulating to so many Hamas demands he’d been loathe to do before.  The answer: something’s cooking with Iran:
From Bibi’s point of view this deal is a default setting.  In his view, not completing it would’ve caused far more damage in light of the preparations for the battle with the great enemy [Iran] to come.
Bibi knew that if he attacked Iran, Hamas might never free Shalit.  In light of this, Bibi’s explanation that the deal was a “now or never” thing; that if it wasn’t done now the uncertainties and dangers of the Arab Spring might prevent a deal from ever being sealed–all make sense in a perverse way.  What he’s saying, if I’m right, is that the aftermath of an Israeli attack on Iran will leave the region so unstable that we might never see Shalit again.  And Bibi, and what little moral conscience he has, was troubled by this considering that he’d made numerous promises to free the Israeli soldier during his term in office.
If you read today’s news of our exposure of an alleged Iranian terror plot and the clear exaggeration the Justice Department is offering to explain the conspirators, their goals, and the means they attempted to use to achieve them, I think it reads like the U.S. and Israel preparing the world for an attack on Iran.  Before they do, they need to ratchet up pressure, intensify the demonization campaign.  They need to make Iran look the part of the villain before they strike.  Read Muhammad Sahimi’s further reporting on the alleged plot here.
Looking at the map above, isn’t it convenient that we uncovered this alleged plot against Saudi Arabia which has a possible Iran attack route outlined above.  The article specially notes that Saudi Arabia may wish to take steps of its own against Iran.  Gee, what might they be?  I wonder.
Finally, Yoram Cohen, Israel’s Shin Bet chief, has reassured Israel (Hebrew) that none of the Palestinian prisoners with “blood on their hands” will be released, by which he specifically refers to Ahmed Sadaat and Marwan Barghouti among others.  Frankly, I find it hard to believe that Hamas would wait six years to do a deal and not manage to free the most important of all the prisoners, Barghouti.  I believe, despite what Cohen says, that there must be a provision involving freeing Barghouti, even if it’s not considered formally part of the overall deal.

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