Ben Caspit :Netanyahu, Liberman spingono Israele verso la guerra?

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All'inizio della sua festa della Knesset il 23 ottobre, il ministro della Difesa Avigdor Liberman lanciò  una notizia bomba . “ Il  razzo lanciato  nel nord costituisce un attacco deliberato di una cellula   locale degli  Hezbollah . Considero il regime di Assad   responsabili di tutto ciò che succede nel suolo siriano   così  come   forze russe che si trovano lì per fermare gli Hezbollah ".

Liberman si riferiva ai  quattro razzi sparati dal territorio siriano, secondo  le forze di difesa israeliane (IDF)  un attacco intenzionale ad  Israele.

La dichiarazione pubblica di Liberman ha destato interesse  in Israele e in tutto il Medio Oriente. Le tensioni nel nord hanno raggiunto  nuovi livelli nelle ultime settimane e i commenti di Liberman sono stati considerati un avviso   per Nasrallah a Beirut, nonché una grave escalation nella recente guerra di parole tra le parti.

L'intero episodio ha ricevuto una svolta bizzarra solo poche ore dopo- Infatti  l'intelligence militare non aveva  informazioni su un ordine diretto di  Nasrallah, su   Assad o sull’ identità della cellula terroristica responsabile del razzo. Liberman si è trovato  in una guerra di versioni conflittuali con l'IDF, ma rimane il mistero: dove ha tratto  le sue informazioni? Liberman è arrivato alla riunione della Knesset il 23 ottobre direttamente da un viaggio a Washington , dove ha tenuto incontri con le sue controparti americane.

Dietro queste osservazioni sta crescendo la critica alle  politiche perseguite da Liberman e dal Primo Ministro Benjamin Netanyahu su tutte le questioni riguardanti il ​​fronte settentrionale. Questa critica è  avvenuta dietro le porte chiuse nelle  ultime settimane. I funzionari di sicurezza, gli ufficiali militari e talvolta anche i ministri hanno espresso il loro disagio  sulle  attività militari in Siria, anche perché Israele abbandona il suo silenzio tradizionale sulla questione. Il governo è ora rapido ad assumersi  la responsabilità dei  bombardamenti e delle  altre azioni militari,.

Il 22 ottobre, Gen. Gen. (Res.), Amiram Levin, un eroe di guerra decorato e ex capo del Comando del Nord, è entrato nella sfida. In un articolo scritto per Yedioth Ahronoth   ha dichiarato inequivocabilmente che il governo sta trascinando Israele in una guerra. Levin ha scritto : "Misurate  risposte militari accoppiate a una diplomazia tranquilla è  quello che bisogna fare,  parole dure e dichiarazioni populiste diventano pericolose ". In un'intervista radiofonica, Levin ha aggiunto :" La nostra forza è nel nostro silenzio ... in una tranquilla diplomazia. ... Con esso possiamo ridurre il rischio di guerra ".

Levin non è  solo. L'ex capo di Stato Maggiore  ha dichiarato che Israele non dovrebbe assumersi la responsabilità di alcuna azione in Siria. "Meno politica, più diplomazia".

Levin si riferiva, tra l'altro, ad un incidente che si è verificato pochi giorni prima, il 16 ottobre, ed è stato descritto in un precedente articolo di Al-Monitor . In quel caso i razzi siriani sono stati lanciati  contro un jet israeliano impegnato in una incursione fotografica su Libano. La forza aerea israeliana ha distrutto la batteria siriana poco dopo. Se ciò fosse avvenuto  qualche anno fa  o anche qualche mese prima, Israele non se  ne  sarebbe assunto la responsabilità. Questa volta, tuttavia, Israele lo ha ammesso e  Netanyahu ha affermato  che chiunque tenti  di danneggiare Israele " sarà colpito   ".

Ya'alon e Levin non sono gli unici critici della "superbia e dell’ arroganza" diffusa  nella  leadership israeliana di recente. Le stesse critiche potrebbero essere ascoltate in sessioni chiuse del Gabinetto, dai ministri  o espresse  da funzionari di sicurezza che preferivano  i giorni in cui Israele  agiva (secondo fonti di notizie straniere), invece di fare ogni tipo di dichiarazione pubblica. Finora, questi critici hanno mantenuto discrete le loro osservazioni. Le uniche persone che hanno osato parlare  sono questi due generali: Levin, che non fa parte della struttura politica  e Ya'alon, che intende correre contro Netanyahu nelle prossime elezioni.

Anche all'interno del Likud i primi mormorii di  critica cominciano ad essere ascoltati, in particolare tra i ranghi più veterani dei  ministri e dei membri della  Knesset.  Si teme che Netanyahu favorisca i suoi bisogni politici personali rispetto agli interessi di sicurezza di Israele. Il fatto che stia annegando nelle indagini penali lo costringe a evidenziare la sua reputazione  di  " Sig . Security ". A questo punto, ha detto una sorgente politica senior ad Al-Monitor parlando a condizione di anonimato, “ quando ci sarà un’accusa , saremo già in guerra. Adesso voglio credere che Netanyahu abbia più paura della guerra che di un procedimento penale”.

Finora Netanyahu si è guadagnata la  reputazione di un’  eccessiva cautela su tutte le questioni di sicurezza. Lo si considera  un primo ministro che evita l'avventura militare  . Ora che si prepara alla lotta per la  sua carriera politica, la grande domanda è se sta perdendo la sua innata paura per la  guerra.

Are Netanyahu, Liberman pushing Israel to war?

At the start of his Knesset faction's meeting on Oct. 23, Defense Minister Avigdor Liberman, the chairman of Yisrael Beitenu, dropped a bombshell. "As for the rocket fire in the north," he confided, "it was not 'leakage' but a deliberate attack by a local cell operated by Hezbollah. [Hezbollah Secretary-General Hassan] Nasrallah personally gave an order to exclude the [Bashar] al-Assad regime. That is why I call on the Assad regime, which we consider responsible for everything that happens on Syrian soil, and on the Russian forces stationed there to restrain Hezbollah."

Liberman was referring to four rockets fired from Syrian territory into the Israeli-held Golan Heights on Oct. 21. According to the Israel Defense Forces (IDF), the rocket fire was not "leakage" resulting from fighting in the Syrian part of the Golan Heights between troops loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and the rebels, but an intentional attack on Israel. Then the defense minister himself announced that the order to fire the rockets was given by none other than Nasrallah and that a local terror cell carried it out without Assad even knowing about it. Nevertheless, Liberman made a point of placing the onus of responsibility for restraining Hezbollah on Assad and his Russian allies.
Liberman's very public statement immediately became a major headline in Israel and throughout the Middle East. Tensions in the north hit new levels over the past few weeks and threatened to reach a boiling point. Liberman's comments were seen as a firm warning, directed squarely at Nasrallah's bunker in Beirut, as well as a serious escalation in the recent war of words between the parties.
The entire episode received a bizarre twist just a few hours later. It turned out that no one in the IDF was familiar with the information that Liberman presented to the microphones and cameras. While the IDF also believes that the rockets were fired at Israel intentionally, military intelligence has no information about a direct order from Nasrallah, an attempt to exclude Assad or the identity of the terror cell responsible for the rocket fire. Thinking that he was getting into a war of words with Nasrallah, Liberman actually found himself caught up in a war of conflicting versions with the IDF. The conflict died down quickly, without developing into an open fight, but the mystery remains: Where did Liberman get his information?
One senior defense official with a keen sense of humor suggested to Al-Monitor that Liberman's close ties with Moscow might have given him access to Russian intelligence. On the other hand, Liberman arrived at the faction meeting in the Knesset on Oct. 23 directly from a trip to Washington, where he held meetings with his American counterparts. Regardless, the defense minister said nothing more about the issue.
Behind these comments is growing criticism of the policies pursued by Liberman and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on all matters concerning the northern front. This criticism has been kept behind closed doors for the past few weeks. Security officials, military officers and occasionally even ministers expressed their discomfort with Israel's light trigger finger when it comes to military activity in Syria. They are even more uneasy about the fact that Israel is abandoning its traditional silence on the matter. The government is now quick to take responsibility for bombing runs and other military actions, with the prime minister himself sometimes issuing the statements.
On Oct. 22, Maj. Gen. (res.) Amiram Levin, a decorated war hero and former chief of the Northern Command, entered the fray. In an article he wrote for Yedioth Ahronoth daily and in ensuing interviews, Levin stated unequivocally that the government is dragging Israel to war. Levin wrote, “Measured military responses coupled with quiet diplomacy vis-a-vis the players on the northern front are the right thing to do. … But when they are accompanied by harsh words and populist statements, they become dangerous." In a radio interview, Levin added, "Our strength lies in our thunderous silence … in quiet diplomacy. … With it we can reduce the risk of war."
Levin was not alone. Former Chief of Staff and Defense Minister Moshe Ya'alon seconded this. In an interview with Army Radio on Oct. 22, he said that Israel should not take responsibility for any actions in Syria. It is harmful, he said, and it encourages the opposing party to respond. "Less politics, more diplomacy," he said.
Ya'alon and Levin were referring, among other things, to an incident that occurred just a few days before, on Oct. 16, and was described in an earlier Al-Monitor article. In that incident, Syrian rockets were fired at an Israeli jet engaged in a photographic incursion over Lebanon. The Israeli air force destroyed the Syrian rocket battery soon after. Had that incident occurred a few years, or even a few months, earlier, Israel would not have taken responsibility for it. This time, however, Israel was quick to admit that it was behind the sortie, with Netanyahu stating that anyone who tries to hurt Israel “will be hurt in return.”
Ya'alon and Levin are not the only critics of the "haughtiness and arrogance" that have been spreading among the Israeli leadership recently. The same criticism could be heard in closed sessions of the Cabinet, from ministers who failed to understand the recent wave of recurring Israeli boasting. Similarly, it was voiced by security officials, who longed for the days when Israel preferred to act (according to foreign news sources), instead of talking and making all sorts of public statements. So far, these critics have kept their remarks discrete. The only people who dared to speak up were these two generals: Levin, who is not a part of the political establishment although he is identified with the Labor Party, and Ya'alon, who plans to run against Netanyahu in the next election.
Even within the Likud, the first murmurings of criticism are starting to be heard, particularly among the more veteran ranks of ministers and Knesset members. "If you want to shoot, then shoot. Just don't go talking about it," one source in the party told Al-Monitor on the condition of anonymity. The one concern that no one dares voice so far is that Netanyahu favors his personal political needs over Israel's security interests. The fact that he is drowning in criminal investigations has been forcing him to shine a spotlight on his achievements and to highlight his reputation as "Mr. Security." At this rate, said one senior political source to Al-Monitor speaking on condition of anonymity, by the time we have an indictment, we will have already descended into war. Right now I want to believe that Netanyahu is more afraid of war than he is of an indictment.
So far Netanyahu has earned himself a reputation for excessive caution on all security matters. He is thought to be a prime minister who avoids military adventurism, is wary of wars and who prefers to return home without taking any risks. Now that he is preparing for the fight of his political career, the big question is whether he is losing his innate fear of war.

Found in: Syria war spillover

Ben Caspit is a columnist for Al-Monitor's Israel Pulse. He is also a senior columnist and political analyst for Israeli newspapers and has a daily radio show and regular TV shows on politics and Israel. On Twitter: @BenCaspit